Galaxy Poll Delivered “Change” Message to PM Rudd
Was this week’s Galaxy poll, which underscored the backlash against the government over the delay in the ETS, the final nail in the coffin for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd? It found 52% of voters disapproved of the government’s decision to delay the ETS. WWF plans to use the poll to increase pressure on both major parties to combat climate change.
Sid Maher in The Australian (23 June 2010):
LABOR’S primary vote has collapsed in southeast Queensland.
The government is facing defeat in the north Brisbane seat of Petrie and struggling to hold Brisbane amid voter anger at the Prime Minister’s decision to delay the emissions trading scheme.
A Galaxy poll of 1600 voters in four Brisbane seats, taken for WWF Australia, shows Labor’s primary vote has slumped 9 per cent since the last election to 34 per cent across Petrie and Brisbane, which it holds, and the marginal Coalition seats of Bowman and Ryan.
The Coalition’s primary vote was one point higher than in the 2007 election, at 46 per cent. Based on preference flows at the last election, the Coalition has a winning lead over the government of 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
The poll, taken from June 9 to June 15, reinforces a Newspoll published this week of the Queensland marginal seats of Dawson, Flynn and Longman which also found Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote and the Coalition on 45 per cent. Newspoll found Labor’s support had also crashed in western Sydney.
The Galaxy poll underscores the backlash against the government over the delay in the ETS.
Galaxy found 52 per cent of voters disapproved of the government’s decision to delay the ETS, and that the Greens vote had doubled from 7.8 per cent at the last election to 15 per cent across the four electorates.
WWF plans to use the poll to increase pressure on both major parties to combat climate change and will carry out an advertising campaign and letter drops in the next few weeks.
“You can pursue energy efficiency and soil carbon, and both are good, but unless you put a cap on pollution you are just mucking around,” said WWF Australia sustainable development program leader Paul Toni.
Galaxy found that “around two-thirds (64 per cent) of those in Queensland’s most marginal seats claim the ETS will influence the way they vote at the next election”.
In Petrie, it found Labor’s primary vote has slumped to 36 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 43 per cent, while the Greens are polling 13 per cent and Family First 5 per cent. In Brisbane, the ALP polled 37 per cent compared with the Coalition’s 43 per cent, while the Greens had 16 per cent.
The Coalition looks set to hold Bowman, polling 48 per cent of the primary vote compared with 34 per cent for the ALP and 13 per cent for the Greens.
Ryan also looks comfortable for the Coalition, with 48 per cent compared with Labor’s 30 per cent and 18 per cent for the Greens.
The poll found 64 per cent of voters in the four marginal seats still supported an ETS and only 25 per cent opposed the idea.
Support increased to 70 per cent when voters were advised that low and middle income earners would be compensated for electricity prices under the government’s proposal.
But veteran Labor strategist Bob McMullan told caucus that reporting of Labor’s poor polling had been overdone.
Mr McMullan said no opposition leader had won government with Tony Abbott’s level of disapproval and no government that was ahead in the polls at this point in the cycle had lost. He said Labor’s share of the two-party-preferred vote had risen from 49 per cent in April to 52 per cent at the most recent Newspoll.