Could Some Pacific Islands & People “Be Lost Without Trace”?

Australia, New Zealand and other
countries in the region face growing pressure to accept potential ‘climate
refugees’ from Pacific islands facing the risk of wipe-out from global warming.
Many Pacific islands are poor and undeveloped, meaning that worsening floods
and rising sea levels could severely damage housing and infrastructure. For
some, the changes are already being felt: ‘Our biggest concern is that one fine
day, a king tide will simply sweep over the islands and most or all people will
be washed away without any trace.’ Read More

By Jonathan Pearlman, For the
Straits Times (5 December 2011):

SYDNEY: Australia, New Zealand
and other countries in the region face growing pressure to accept potential
‘climate refugees’ from Pacific islands facing the risk of wipe-out from global
warming.

The extent of the threat across
the Pacific has emerged from a new report which found that the island-states
face higher sea levels and worsening natural disasters. Temperatures in the
region are set to rise by half to one degree Celsius in the next 20 years.

Many Pacific islands are poor and
undeveloped, meaning that worsening floods and rising sea levels could severely
damage housing and infrastructure. For some, the changes are already being
felt.

•Tuvalu (Population: 10,500)

Consists of nine coral atolls,
about half-way between Australia and Hawaii. Less than 5m above sea level and
experiences regular flooding. Officials have expressed concerns about rising
sea levels for more than a decade. The sea level has risen by about 5mm per
year since 1993, compared with a global average of 2.8mm to 3.6mm.

•Kiribati (Population: 101,000)

Consists of 33 atolls. Droughts
can be very severe and are usually associated with La Nina. Drought from April
2007 to early 2009 severely affected water supplies. Faces growing threat of
floods, storm surges and shoreline erosion and losses of subsistence crops and
coastal fisheries.

•Vanuatu (Population: 225,000)

A group of islands in the south
Pacific Ocean. Faces growing threat to crops from prolonged drought and water
shortages. Rising sea levels are damaging shorelines and underground drinking
water sources.

•Marshall Islands (Population:
67,000)

Consists of 29 atolls and five
isolated islands. Typhoons, droughts and storm waves are the main extreme
events impacting the islands. There will be fewer typhoons, but there is likely
to be a rise in the average maximum wind speed of typhoons by between 2 per
cent and 11 per cent.

A community leader on Papua New
Guinea’s Carteret islands, Ms Ursula Rakova, said changing weather patterns had
already significantly reduced the amount of usable farm land. Recently, she
said, rising waters had divided one of the islands in half.

‘High tides are frequent and
continue to wash away our shorelines,’ she said.

‘Our biggest concern is that one
fine day, a king tide will simply sweep over the islands and most or all people
will be washed away without any trace.’

A new 500-page report, released
by the Australian government, marks the first comprehensive analysis of some of
the countries likely to be the worst affected by climate change. It provides
separate studies on likely impacts on East Timor and 14 Pacific nations, some
of which are facing potential wipe-out.

The Pacific states have sent
envoys to climate talks in Durban, South Africa, and have been urging the
international community to reduce carbon emissions and agree to resettlement
plans.

Several countries such as
Kiribati and Tuvalu have approached governments across the region directly to
try to urge them to agree to take so-called climate refugees. It is believed
that refugees could begin leaving these countries due to climate change within
20 years.

Tuvalu, one of the world’s lowest-lying
countries, has lobbied the Australian government for several years to try to
set up a migration plan.

Under the plan, the South Pacific
nation of over 10,000 people would be able to settle migrants in Australia but
would retain its maritime territory. It would retain its status under
international law and continue to be represented in the United Nations.

Kiribati has also discussed with
Australian officials plans to resettle climate refugees. Meanwhile, the
Maldives has been planning to relocate residents to higher ground and may buy
land for resettlement in other countries.

While New Zealand has shown a
willingness to settle small numbers of Pacific refugees, successive Australian
governments have tended to downplay the issue, or focus on providing aid to try
to improve conditions on the islands.

But experts say the Australian
government should begin making plans to resettle migrants now rather than wait
until they are forced to flee. This could include special work programmes and
seasonal labour schemes that would both help Australian farmers fill temporary
job needs during picking season and also boost ties between Pacific islanders
and Australia.

Professor Jane McAdam, director
of the International Refugee and Migration Law Project at the University of New
South Wales, said Australia should develop a 10- to 20-year migration plan to
assist the worst-affected countries.

‘These people don’t want to be
seen as refugees. They want to be seen as active, valued participants in a new
country, not recipients of aid,’ she said.

Prof McAdam said that while it
would be hard for many island inhabitants to leave, many younger residents
believe it ‘is going to be inevitable’.

The report on climate change in
the Pacific, involving 100 researchers and published by the Australian
government’s Pacific Climate Change Science Programme, says the past decade has
been the warmest on record and ocean acidity has been rising. It predicts
widespread rises in extreme rainfall, more hot days and warm nights, and
increases in the intensity of tropical cyclones.

But there was some good news:
fewer cyclones and less drought are likely.

Source: www.straitstimes.com