Ocean Weather Forecast: It’s Getting Hotter

Scientists have recorded the world’s warmest August ocean surface temperature, a heat wave is heading for Queensland and an El Nino-borne drought looms, while the Arctic’s sea ice pack thawed to its third-lowest summer level on record, continuing an overall decline symptomatic of climate change.

Brian Williams in the Courier Mail (18 September 2009):

SCIENTISTS have recorded the world’s warmest August ocean surface temperature, a heat wave is heading for Queensland and an El Nino-borne drought looms.

The weather bureau expects temperatures in far western Queensland to reach 40C early next week and hit 34C in Brisbane on Wednesday, driven by north to northwest winds.

There should be mostly fine conditions over the weekend for Brisbane, Ipswich and the Gold and Sunshine coasts, with the chance of a shower.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Granite Belt, with patchy and thundery rain developing in the Channel Country.

Meanwhile, the US National Climatic Data Centre in Asheville, North Carolina, has found ocean temperatures were the warmest on record averaged for any June to August period in either the Northern Hemisphere summer or Southern Hemisphere winter – 1.03F above the 20th century average of 61.4F. The preliminary analysis is based on records dating to 1880.

 NCDC scientists said large parts of the world’s land mass had warmer-than-average temperatures in August.

The warmest were Australia, Europe, parts of the Middle East, northwestern Africa and southern South America. Australia and New Zealand had their warmest August since records began.

The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

Arctic sea ice covered an average 6.267 million sq km during August, 18.4 per cent below the 1979-2000 average and consistent with a decline of sea ice since 1979.

National Climate Centre climatologist Robyn Duell said unusual drought-bearing El Nino conditions persisted, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures warmer than average.

“These conditions are forecast to persist until at least year’s end by most leading climate models,” she said.

Conditions across eastern Australia were dry during July and August, while August and early September have been exceptionally warm.

SEQwater spokesman Mike Foster said catchments had dried out to the point that a minimum 50mm to 60mm of rain would be needed to trigger inflows. Brisbane’s Wivenhoe Dam was on 65.9 per cent, Somerset 92.9 per cent and North Pine 98.4 per cent for an aggregate of 75.7 per cent.

The Australian Conservation Council yesterday said it would start a national campaign, urging governments to strengthen building standards for homes to set zero emissions and water-efficiency standards.

Environment Victoria’s campaigns director, Mark Wakeham, said emissions from the average home could be reduced by more than 75 per cent with energy-efficient design and appliances, while power needs could be supplied by renewable energy.

Source: www.news.com.au

From Reuters correspondents in Los Angeles (18 September 2009):  

THE Arctic’s sea ice pack thawed to its third-lowest summer level on record, continuing an overall decline symptomatic of climate change, US scientists said.

The melt was up slightly from the seasonal melt of the past two years, but still some 20 per cent below the minmum cover for the Arctic summer since satellites began measuring it in 1979.

The range of ocean remaining frozen over the northern polar region reached its minimum extent for 2009 on September 12, when it covered 5.1 million square km, and now appeared to be growing again as the Arctic starts its annual cool-down, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported.

That level was 24 per cent less than the 1979-2000 average, the Colorado-based government agency said.

This summer’s minimum represented a loss about about two-thirds of the sea ice measured at the height of Arctic winter in March.

By comparison, the Arctic ice shelf typically shrank by a little more than half each summer during the 1980s and 1990s, ice scientist Walt Meier said.

The lowest point on record was reached in September 2007 and the 2009 minimum ranks as the third-smallest behind last year’s level.

But scientists said they do not consider the slight upward fluctuation again this summer to be a recovery.

The difference was attributed to relatively cooler temperatures this summer compared with the two previous years.

Winds also tended to disperse the ice pack over a larger region, scientists said.

“The long-term decline in summer extent is expected to continue in future years,” the report said.

Scientists regard the Arctic and its sea ice as among the most sensitive barometers of global warming because even small temperature changes made a huge difference.

“If you go from a degree below freezing to two degrees above freezing, that’s a completely different environment in the polar region,” Mr Meier said.

“You’re going from ice skating to swimming. Whereas if you’re on a tropical beach and it’s three degrees warmer, you probably wouldn’t even notice it.”

World leaders will meet at the United Nations in New York on Tuesday to discuss a climate treaty due to be agreed on in December.

Source: www.heraldsun.com.au