Big Volcanic Eruptions Can lead to More Rain and More Drought

Powerful volcanic eruptions are capable of changing rainfall patterns over large portions of the Earth, soaking some areas while depriving others of essential rain. Tree-ring researchers at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory showed that big eruptions tend to dry up much of central Asia but bring more rain to Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar. The finding was something of a surprise, since many previous climate models predicted the opposite effect.

By OurAmazingPlanet Staff (3 November 2010)

Powerful volcanic eruptions are capable of changing rainfall patterns over large portions of the Earth, soaking some areas while depriving others of essential rain, according to newly emerging data.

Tree-ring researchers at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory showed that big eruptions tend to dry up much of central Asia but bring more rain to Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar.

The finding was something of a surprise, since many previous climate models predicted the opposite effect.

soaking some areas while depriving others of essential rain, according to newly emerging data.

Tree-ring researchers at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory showed that big eruptions tend to dry up much of central Asia but bring more rain to Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar.

The finding was something of a surprise, since many previous climate models predicted the opposite effect.

The growth rings of some tree species can be correlated with rainfall, and the observatory’s Tree Ring Lab used rings from some 300 sites across Asia to measure the effects of 54 eruptions going back about 800 years.

“Volcanoes can be important players in climate over time,” said Columbia’s Kevin Anchukaitis, lead author of a study now appearing online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. “We might think of the study of the solid earth and the atmosphere as two different things, but really everything in the system is interconnected.”

A mysterious pattern emerges

Large, explosive eruptions fill the atmosphere with tiny sulfate particles that deflect solar radiation. The resulting cooling on Earth’s surface can last months or years, sometimes bringing on a “volcanic winter.” Some scientists suspect that extended volcanic winters contributed to the demise of the dinosaurs and the Neanderthals.

As for rainfall, in the simplest models, cooler temperatures decrease evaporation of surface water, and less water vapor translates to less rain. But matters are greatly complicated by atmospheric circulation patterns, cyclic changes in temperatures over the oceans, and the shapes of land masses.

Up to now, most climate models incorporating known forces predicted that volcanic explosions would disrupt the monsoon by bringing less rain to Southeast Asia. The tree-ring researchers found the opposite.

“The data only recently became available to test the models,” said Rosanne D’Arrigo, one of the study’s co-authors.

The researchers studied the effects of notable eruptions in the past centuries. The eruptions or explosions of Peru’s Huaynaputina volcano in 1600-1601, Indonesia’s Mount Tambora in 1815, Indonesia’s Krakatoa in 1883, Mexico’s El Chichón in 1982, and the Philippines’ Pinatubo in 1991 all produced demonstrable shifts in rainfall. (The largest volcanic explosion of the millennium is thought to be one in 1258, but its exact location remains mysterious.)

The tree rings showed that huge swaths of southern China, Mongolia and surrounding areas consistently dried up in the year or two following big events, while the mainland of Southeast Asia got increased rain. The researchers say many factors are possible and it would be speculative at this point to say exactly why weather patterns work this way.

“It’s obvious there’s a lot of work to be done to understand how all these different forces interact,” D’Arrigo said.

Dangerous interactions

Anchukaitis said that if atmospheric dynamics — phenomena such as the El Niño cycle, a global climate pattern that affects everything from ocean temperature to rainfall — and volcanic eruptions come together with the right timing, they could reinforce one another, with drastic results for rainfall patterns in Asia.

“Then you get flooding or drought, and neither flooding nor drought is good for the people living in those regions,” he said.

The study also raises questions of whether a “geoengineering” scheme to counteract man-made climate change — through the huge releases of particulate, in an attempt to mimic volcanic eruptions — might have complex unintended consequences.

Ultimately, said Anchukaitis, such studies should help scientists refine models of how natural and man-made forces might act together to shift weather patterns — a vital question for all areas of the world.

Source: www.ouramazingplanet.com

Impact of Electric Cars in Japan & Singapore

Sooner or later the electric car could render thousands of companies superfluous in the heart of Japan’s auto parts region. No more engines. No call for exhaust pipes. Spark plugs? Gone with the electric-car wind. That’s the message from a recent widely circulated study that predicts the eventual demise of much of Hamamatsu’s gasoline engine economy. But one Japan car maker Mitsubishi Motors has signed a collaborative deal to “popularize electric vehicles (EVs)” with Singapore’s government, supplying 25 i-MiEVs for field trials.

By Hiroko Tabuchi In New York Times (2 November 2010)

Sooner or, more likely, later the electric car could render thousands of companies superfluous here in the heart of Japan’s auto parts region.

No more engines. No call for exhaust pipes. Spark plugs? Gone with the electric-car wind.

Or so, in essence, warns a recent widely circulated study that predicts the eventual demise of much of Hamamatsu’s gasoline engine economy. Spurred by that study and a general sense of foreboding, carmakers, parts factories and local governments in this sprawling industrial town are joining forces to prepare for a future of electric vehicles.

Suzuki Motor, based in Hamamatsu, helped found a regionwide alliance in October that will help parts makers develop new automotive technologies geared toward electric cars, and even other industries.

The alliance will host a study group later this month in which engineers will dismantle an electric car motor made by Suzuki for parts makers to study.

“We are in the midst of an industrial revolution,” Osamu Suzuki, the automaker’s 80-year-old president, said on Oct. 7 at a rally to commemorate the start of the alliance.

“Our suppliers need to start studying how they can transform their businesses.”

Some experts in Japan warn that Hamamatsu is a microcosm of a wider challenge facing Japanese car manufacturing, which consists of a web of manufacturers like Toyota and Honda supported by thousands of companies that turn out engine blocks, exhaust pipes and hundreds of other parts specific to gas power.

According to a study published in August by the Shizuoka Economic Research Institute, almost 30 percent of sales in Japan’s 34.6 trillion yen ($430 billion) auto parts industry comes from parts that could be rendered obsolete by electricity-powered vehicles. In Shizuoka, the region surrounding Hamamatsu that is known for its strengths in engine technology, that number jumps to 48 percent, the institute says.

“Japan has always prided itself in developing the best engines, the best auto technology,” said Hisashi Nakajima, senior managing director at the institute and the author of the report. “If we don’t do something now, Japan’s strength could turn out to be its weakness.”

Hamamatsu is desperate to keep alive the estimated 2,000 auto parts makers in the city that makes up two-thirds of its 3 trillion yen ($37 billion) manufacturing economy and supports almost 100,000 jobs. Two other major industries in the city, textiles and musical instruments, have declined in the last decades, usurped by cheaper rivals in the rest of Asia.

Hamamatsu, locals say, now literally runs on gasoline engines. In addition to Suzuki, the city is also home to Yamaha Motor, a Japanese pioneer in internal combustion engines that has provided Toyota Motor with engines for some of its most revered models, including its 2000GT sports car, a highly prized collectors’ car from the 1960s. Yamaha continues to provide Toyota with engines for some domestic models like the Crown. The region’s auto parts suppliers had supported that effort by staying on the cutting edge of engine development. Building on that strength, these parts makers — which range from tiny factories run by a handful of employees to multinational corporations with more than 1,000 workers — supply parts to all but one of Japan’s major automakers. The exception is Mazda.

For the last 40 years, Harada Seiki has honed its precision metal-cutting technology for automobile engine parts: spark plugs, crankshafts and piston rings.

Now, Harada Seiki wants to participate in the regionwide alliance to study whether its production processes would be applicable to electric-vehicle motors.

“Electric cars will have far less of the kind of parts that we’ve always manufactured,” said Hirotoshi Harada, the parts maker’s president. “But they may require parts that never existed before,” he said. “That’s what we want to find out.”

But Mr. Harada and other executives point to challenges. For one, it is not clear how fast the shift toward electric vehicles will occur. The research company J. D. Power estimates that by 2015, hybrid gas-electric and all-electric vehicles will surpass three million units a year, or about 3.4 percent of global light-vehicle sales. But after that, adoption depends greatly on factors like government policies, the price of gas and how fast the infrastructure for batteries and recharging can be set up, analysts say.

Nor is it clear what technologies will eventually dominate — gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, pure electric vehicles or even fuel-cell cars — or whether gasoline cars will ever become obsolete. Even big auto makers seem reluctant to bet on one technology. Nissan, which will introduce what it says will be the first mass-produced all-electric vehicle next month, on Tuesday expanded its gas-electric hybrid lineup with its new Infiniti M.

But to the extent the car industry does shift toward electric vehicles, analysts say Japan’s auto industry could face new rivals overseas, and from industries and regions beyond those traditionally associated with car making.

China has emerged as a front-runner in electric vehicles, with a flurry of small companies producing simple, cheap plug-in cars. And in Silicon Valley, the start-up Tesla has sold luxury battery-powered sports cars since 2008.

Meanwhile, auto parts makers have surrendered a central part of the electric car, batteries, to the electronics industry. Even top automakers are working with electronics companies to develop and produce the powerful and complex batteries required for electric vehicle power trains. Toyota, for example, is working with Panasonic, while General Motors is working with a unit of LG Corporation of South Korea.

“The industry map is being redrawn,” said Mr. Nakajima of the Shizuoka Economic Research Institute. “In that turmoil, winners can become losers, and losers, winners.”

Meanwhile, many parts makers here, especially smaller ones, may see their research and development capabilities or financial resources stretched too thin to develop parts for electric vehicles while also keeping up with developments in gasoline-car production.

Indeed, many small factories in Japan are already struggling to survive, weighed down by a sluggish economy and a strong yen. The Japanese currency has surged to 15-year highs in recent months, punishing manufacturers by making their products more expensive overseas.

“The question is: Where do they spend their limited resources?” said Oliver Hazimeh, director at PRTM Management Consultants, based in Waltham, Mass., and a leader of the firm’s clean transportation work. “Do they focus on something that’s going to happen 10 or 15 years out, or do they keep on developing for gasoline cars?”

He added, “They still have time, but they need to think about what is their long-term strategy.”

If history is a guide, the region’s parts makers have shown an ability to adapt to change. ASTI, another Hamamatsu-based parts maker, had its roots in making piano connector parts and wire harnesses for Yamaha pianos and organs. When Yamaha’s business shifted to engines and motorbikes in the 1970s, ASTI adapted its wire harness for automotive use.

Now ASTI says it faces its biggest challenge yet: to develop wiring and cables that will withstand the greatly increased electricity needs of an electric car. A wire harness for conventional cars carries about 12 volts, says Masashi Terada, a director in charge of technical engineering at ASTI. In purely electric vehicles, some cables would need to channel more than 10 times that, he said.

“We want to figure out what automakers are looking for as they move towards zero-emissions cars,” Mr. Terada said. “Or even better, we ourselves want to take the lead and tell automakers what they need.”

Hiroshi Tsuda, a former president at Suzuki who now leads the local alliance that will help parts makers evolve into electric vehicle suppliers, is optimistic. “By acting now, both parts makers and car makers can stay ahead of the curve,” Mr. Tsuda said. “Japanese industry has always adapted with the times,” he said. “This is not a crisis. It’s a big opportunity.”

Source: www.nytimes.com

Eric Loveday in Green Auto Blog (26 November 2010):

Mitsubishi Motors and its distributor, Cycle & Carriage Automotive PTE Limited (CCA), signed a collaborative deal to “popularize electric vehicles (EVs)” with Singapore’s government. Under terms of the agreement, Mitsubishi, via CCA, will supply 25 i-MiEVs for Singapore’s EV task force’s “test-bedding project” – another name for field trials. Singapore’s multi-agency task force will install the required charging infrastructure and use the test vehicles to evaluate the potential cost benefits of adopting EVs in the future.

Leo Yip, chairman of Singapore’s economic development board, summarized the importance of adding a major automaker to its trials and framed the goals of its EV project with these words:

“We are delighted to welcome Mitsubishi Motors on board as the first major EV supplier for Singapore’s EV test bed program. This test bed program is an excellent example of how Singapore presents itself as a Living Laboratory for auto-manufacturers, charging equipment suppliers and EV component players. We see opportunities in areas such as battery management systems, power electronics and electric drive systems. “

Mitsubishi currently sells its battery-powered i-MiEV in Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia and reports that more than 4,000 of the diminutive electric hatchbacks roam the roads across the globe. Additionally, the automaker rolled out its widened and lengthened U.S. version, called the Mitsubishi i, at the LA Auto Show late last week.

The Economic Development Board (EDB) of Singapore, including Singapore’s Energy Market Authority (EMA) and Land Transport Authority (LTA), as part of a multi government agency EV task force will set up an EV charging infrastructure network and evaluate the cost benefits of EVs for future adoption. Within these activities, MMC, via CCA, will supply 25 i-MiEVs from 2011 and cooperate in the taskforce’s test bedding efforts.

Mr. Osamu Masuko, President of Mitsubishi Motors said, “MMC is proud to be the part of EV test-bed in Singapore. We believe that Singapore is an ideal market for EV. Working together with the Singapore government and Cycle & Carriage Automotive, we would like to evaluate the performance of i-MiEV under the condition in Singapore and also promote the appeal of EV to Singapore citizen.”

Source: www.green.autoblog.com

Lucky Last Word: Science nails the blame game.

Finally, climate scientists see a way to stop being so wishy-washy and start assigning blame, through a technique called “fractional risk attribution.” This technique uses mathematical models of how the atmosphere would work if we had not goosed carbon dioxide to 389 ppm (from 278 before the Industrial Revolution), plus data about ancient (“paleo”) climates and historical (more recent) weather. The idea is to calculate how many times an extreme event should have occurred absent human interference. Sharon Begley sets out the basis on this climate whodunit for Newsweek.

By Sharon Begley in Newsweek (6 December 2010):

To those who are convinced that the science of global warming is sound, as well as to those on the fence, the refusal of climate scientists to attribute any single episode of extreme weather to greenhouse-induced climate change has been either exasperating … or suspicious.

You mean you guys can’t definitely say human-caused climate change is why 135 daily rainfall records were broken along the East Coast during September’s deluges (Wilmington, N.C.: 19.7 inches over three days)? You can’t say climate change is why 2010 is eclipsing 1998 as the hottest year on record, or why in August an ice island four times the size of Manhattan broke off from a Greenland glacier? How about why 2000–09 was the warmest decade on record, that 153 of the 1,218 U.S. weather stations recorded their hottest summer since 1895, why Moscow suffered a once-in-centuries heat wave this summer, or why one fifth of Pakistan flooded?

In short, no. No matter how bizarre the weather, the mantra of climatologists has been that one cannot attribute any single event to changing climate. All science can do is conclude that extreme events are getting more likely as humankind pumps more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Finally, climate scientists see a way to stop being so wishy-washy and start assigning blame, through a technique called “fractional risk attribution.” This technique uses mathematical models of how the atmosphere would work if we had not goosed carbon dioxide to 389 ppm (from 278 before the Industrial Revolution), plus data about ancient (“paleo”) climates and historical (more recent) weather. The idea is to calculate how many times an extreme event should have occurred absent human interference, explains climate scientist Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Lab, and the probability of the same extreme event in today’s greenhouse-forced atmosphere. Result: putting numbers on extreme weather.

In their biggest success, climate scientists led by Peter Stott of the British Met Office analyzed the 2003 European heat wave, when the mercury rose higher than at any time since the introduction of weather instruments (1851), and probably since at least 1500. After plugging in historical and paleo data, and working out climate patterns in a hypothetical world without a human-caused greenhouse effect, they conclude that our meddling was 75 percent to blame for the heat wave. Put another way, we more than doubled the chance that it would happen, and it’s twice as likely to be human-caused than natural. That’s one beat shy of “Yes, we did it,” but better than “There’s no way to tell.”

Scientists are now applying the technique to other extreme weather, especially deluges and droughts. They have reason to be optimistic. One of the signal successes of climate science has been identifying the “fingerprints” of the culprits behind rising temperatures, fierce storms, and other signs that a 10,000-year-old climate regime has been knocked for a loop. Fingerprinting has shown that the rise in global temps follows the pattern you’d expect from the greenhouse effect and not an increase in the sun’s output, for instance. A hotter sun would heat the upper atmosphere more than the lower, but in fact the upper layers have cooled while the lower have warmed, Santer explains. Fingerprinting has also nailed the greenhouse effect for warming the oceans. Natural forces such as El Niño warm some seas and cool others, but every major ocean is hotter than in the 1950s. Similar analyses have been done for today’s extreme rainfall patterns (drought followed by deluge, not precipitation spread out evenly) and the retreat of arctic sea ice. “Natural causes alone can’t explain any of these,” Santer says. “You need a large human contribution.”

The word “interesting” covers a lot of sins, which is why it’s the perfect word for the world’s current response to climate change. That response is no response, as shown by the low expectations for the international climate meeting this week in Cancún, by China’s voracious appetite for coal, and by the Senate’s failure to pass a climate bill. It’s interesting that people refuse to make changes today to stave off disasters years hence. It’s interesting that memories—of killer storms and heat waves—are so short, with people apparently viewing them as one-offs rather than harbingers of what we’ll suffer regularly in a greenhouse world. It’s interesting that we saw Muscovites and Pakistanis dying, and blithely thought, too bad, but hey, it isn’t me. All of which means that the climate we are creating will be … interesting.

Sharon Begley is NEWSWEEK’s science editor and author of  Train Your Mind, Change Your Brain: How a New Science Reveals Our Extraordinary Potential to Transform Ourselves.

Source: www.newsweek.com