The leading British and former World Bank economist most famously as far back at 2006 that the cost of inaction would be far more – between 5% and 20% of GDP across the world annually – than the real cost of dealing with climate change impacts and risk – in the order of 1% of GDP annually.  The IPCC report due out this week, says Stern, “ will show even more clearly how human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are creating a dangerous trend with immense risks for the lives and livelihoods of billions of people around the world from shifts in extreme weather, rising sea levels and other serious problems”. Read More

World leaders must co-operate on talks for strong new climate change deal

The most comprehensive study of the science of climate change is released this week, with an urgent message for governments

Nicholas Stern in The Observer, Saturday 21 September 2013

On Friday, 195 governments around the world will accept a summary of the most comprehensive assessment of the basic science of climate change that has ever been written. The IPCC’s report, which has been prepared by 259 researchers from 39 countries, will show even more clearly how human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are creating a dangerous trend with immense risks for the lives and livelihoods of billions of people around the world from shifts in extreme weather, rising sea levels and other serious problems.

It will also underline the fact that delay is making things much worse, both because the ratchet effect of emissions is causing a rapid accumulation of greenhouse gases and because we are locking in our dependence on the fossil fuels that cause the problem.

Current action is much too weak to reduce emissions by enough to avoid a significant probability of the global average temperature rising by more than 2C above its pre-industrial level by the end of this century. The Earth has not experienced a global temperature more than 2C higher than pre-industrial since the Pliocene epoch 3m years ago, when the polar ice caps were much smaller and sea levels were about 20 metres higher than today. Modern humans have only been around for about 250,000 years, so we have no experience of such a climate.

What we have learned from history is that if people are faced with increased dangers of floods, droughts and other extreme weather, they will try to escape, resulting in population movements of perhaps hundreds of millions, leading to widespread and continued conflict. We have to decide if this is the kind of world we want to present to our children and grandchildren.

Some have argued that we have no responsibility to future generations and that whatever risks we create for them, it is their problem. But imagine what the world would be like if we applied such an unethical approach to our everyday lives and relationships with the people around us now.

There are others who think that, no matter what damage unmanaged climate change might create in the future, our children and grandchildren will be much richer due to many decades of relentless economic growth in the future. But that ignores the fact that unchecked climate change could produce such a hostile environment that it will undermine and destroy growth, such that future generations will be worse off than us.

What we could do instead is create a story of rising living standards, stronger communities and a more resilient society, embracing the challenge of poverty reduction – with everlasting benefits. Our children and grandchildren could inherit a low-carbon economy that will be safer, as well as cleaner, more secure and more efficient, created through investment in an exciting period of technological innovation.

But to achieve this we will need clear and consistent policies not weakness and vacillation, to unleash private investment in a low-carbon economy. We will also need greater international co-operation, with countries sharing examples of the benefits of the new low-carbon industrial revolution.

Every world leader will need to recognise the importance of the international negotiations towards a strong new international agreement on climate change at the UN summit in Paris in 2015.

This week’s report will confront us with the risks we would face from unmanaged climate change, and should help us to recognise there is so much we can do to create a better world for ourselves and future generations.

Re printed from  the Observer and The Guardian

We also reproduce this article by Nicholas Stern which first appeared in the Circle or LeCercle on (10 July 2013):

Innovative society advocacy for a low carbon European economy

Europe has a unique opportunity to boost its growth by investing in the transition to a low carbon economy. European governments should take advantage of the current configuration to boost activity by policies to encourage investment in energy infrastructure.

If it wants to maintain its prosperity against a physical environment increasingly threatening Europe – like the rest of the world – will have to overcome in the next forty years of its economic dependence on oil, coal and gas and thus open a new chapter of sustainable growth based on clean energy.

The volatility of fossil fuels imported from non-European countries has greatly hampered growth, maintaining uncertainty and weighting the bill for households, governments and businesses. A medium-term energy strategy based on strong carbon can be considered a viable option for businesses and households, given the risks involved and despite the direction – timidly – by national policies and international.

Only a strategy of low-carbon growth is credible medium term. And savings down, this is the ideal time to invest in the development patterns of the future. But for that to happen, the private sector must have confidence in the stability and consistency of policies. Procrastination and delay can have a deleterious effect. It is time that European governments set a firm vision for a low carbon economy, with clear policies to implement.

The first step is to set a goal of “decarbonisation” of the European power sector by 2030. We already have most of the technical solutions to achieve this. Subject to rapidly develop and deploy systems for capturing and storing carbon, fossil fuels can retain a place in the energy mix, and the gas can provide an interesting alternative to coal as part of a transition strategy. By mobilizing a wider array resources, Europe will secure its energy supply.

And provided to improve connectivity between national grids, all European countries could take advantage of solar energy produced in the southern regions of the continent or wind energy from the North Sea. A European supergrid would have a production architecture, transportation and much more efficient consumption, including securing the supply of dependent countries imports of non-European gas or improving the management of intermittent and promoting energy efficiency.

A European low-carbon electricity sector would pave the way for accelerated low-carbon transport development, with cars and trains running on green electricity.

All this is feasible, if European governments use public policy to address multiple market failures that impede the development of clean technologies, and to promote private sector investment – only real catalyst for growth and change.

Efforts to establish a carbon price through the European emissions trading scheme (ETS) are thwarted by indecision politicians – in part due to the recession and an erroneous analysis of growth opportunities. All countries must put in place policies to support a high carbon price in all sectors, so that the price of fossil fuels actually takes into account the pollution caused by emissions of greenhouse gases.

But a change of this magnitude requires other measures that the only setting a carbon price: we must overcome market imperfections, such as limiting access to networks, slows research and development or discourage the long-term investment flows.

Hence the importance of having detailed analyzes and relevant decision makers. Not to mention a healthy dose of political will.

There was a time when the European Union was seen by the world as an example of cooperation and collective leadership. But the economic crisis has clearly removed confidence and ability to manage difficulties him. Once a leader in international climate policy, Europe is now at risk of losing this advantage because of its divisions and an ambient confusion, while others, such as China, show the way forward. The United States are also beginning to respond, as evidenced by the aggressive speech by President Obama in late June, and the actions taken at the level of cities and states.

European leaders must realize that there is a solution to the current malaise, it requires resolute action in favor of sustainable growth. Clean energy and industrial revolution are conducive to creativity and entrepreneurship needed to boost growth, security of supply and greening the planet. Experience has shown us that we had two to three decades of sustained investment, innovation and growth to overcome a technological level.

As the world prepares to adopt a new climate treaty in Paris in 2015, Europe can regain the initiative. Engaging the transition to a low-carbon growth, it may at once an example for its partners and competitors, among the rich countries as developing countries, and get the low-carbon markets of the future.

It thus usher in a new era of economic prosperity for the peoples of Europe, while fully exercising its environmental responsibilities to provide future generations with a cleaner and more attractive dynamic better future,.

Source: www.lecercle.lesechos.fr

From the British Academy (18 July 2013):

New President Lord Stern says UK and world “are at a historic point of change.”

In his inaugural speech as incoming President of the British Academy, Lord Stern of Brentford today (18 July) set out his vision, saying: “I believe that we are at a historic point of change.  The world faces a lack of trust in institutions and a lack of confidence in existing ideas and models: it is hungry for new insights into meaning, identity and policy.”

Lord Stern emphasised that the Academy’s great strength and foundation is its Fellowship of eminent academics. Research and the creativity of scholarly work lies at the very heart of the Academy, enabling it to lead and speak on behalf of the humanities and social sciences – advancing the interests and values of the wider academic community, and to playing a significant part in public life. “The power of ideas”, Lord Stern said, “should never be underestimated.”

“There is decline in membership of political parties, a lack of public engagement in political issues, especially amongst the young. These processes are magnified and intensified by the revolution in communications and social media. A crucial part of the public political arena, the quality and quantity of questioning and the serious discussion of evidence, is shrinking before our eyes. We will all be the losers if this continues. This is, I think, a world-wide phenomenon but it is intense in the UK.”

He continued: “What is urgently needed is a new focus on public discussion of a host of difficult challenges. What kind of society do we seek to live in and what are the roles of individual and community responsibilities? How can we rekindle economic growth and development that can last and is responsible, that delivers through its activities and products the kind of outcomes and lives that people find fulfilling? We should drive public debate forward on issues that face us all – issues such as ageing, migration, well-being, liberty and equity, and environment and climate change. These all require deep understanding and reflection, for which research from the humanities and social sciences is essential.”

Lord Stern also announced plans for a new series of high-profile public events from 2014 organised by the Academy. The British Academy Debates will be held across the country, presenting cutting edge academic research, and involving participants from the media, government and civil service. They will cover themes such as Ageing, and Immigration, sparking public debate and discussion on some of the great challenges of our society.

Lord Stern of Brentford joins a roster of major figures in the academic and public life of the UK, including Sir Keith Thomas, Sir Isaiah Berlin and Baroness O’Neill. He succeeds Professor Sir Adam Roberts after a four-year tenure. Lord Stern will be the first President from the LSE since Lord Robbins in 1962.

A leading British economist and academic, Lord Stern was elected as a Fellow of the Academy in 1993. Since 2007 he has been the IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, and also Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. He has taught and researched at universities around the world including Oxford, Warwick, MIT, the College de France and the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, the People’s University of China and the Indian Statistical Institute. He was knighted for services to economics in 2004.

Throughout his distinguished career, he has made a major contribution to the economics of public policy and to development economics. As head of the Government Economic Service, he led the ground-breaking Stern Review on the economics of climate change, published in 2006, which has had great influence around the world. He has been Chief Economist of the EBRD and of the World Bank and has served as adviser to governments, businesses and NGOs in many countries and as Second Permanent Secretary of the UK Treasury.

Lord Stern’s inaugural speech as President of the British Academy can be downloaded in full from the British Academy website.

Source: www.britac.ac.uk

Biography

Lord Stern is chairman of the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at LSE. He is also Chair of the Asia Research Centre and Director of the India Observatory.

Lord Stern was adviser to the UK Government on the Economics of Climate Change and Development from 2005-2007, where he was Head of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, published in 2006.

He was Head of the Government Economic Service from 2003-2007; Second Permanent Secretary to Her Majesty’s Treasury from 2003-2005; Director of Policy and Research for the Prime Minister’s Commission for Africa from 2004-2005; and Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the World Bank from 2000-2003.

During his time as Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Visiting Professor of Economics at LSE, he was one of the founding forces behind the Asia Research Centre, formally becoming its director in 2007.

Source: www.theguardian.com and www.cccep.ac.uk