78% of Global Energy from Fossil Fuels in 2035

A sad state of affairs. The
International Energy Outlook produced by the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA), makes grim reading. In spite of all the efforts all over
the world to produce clean and renewable energy, the report forecasts that
fossil fuels will continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide and
still account for 78% of world energy use in 2035.

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION
ADMINISTRATION, WASHINGTON DC 20585 (19 September 2011):

EIA projects world energy use to
increase 53 percent by 2035; China and India account for half of the total
growth

International Energy Outlook 2011
(IEO2011) released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents
updated projections for world energy markets through 2035. The IEO2011
Reference case projection does not incorporate prospective legislation or
policies that might affect energy markets.

Worldwide energy consumption
grows by 53 percent between 2008 and 2035 in the Reference case, with much of
the increase driven by strong economic growth in the developing nations
especially China and India. “China and India account for half of the
projected increase in world energy use over the next 25 years. China alone,
which only recently became the world’s top energy consumer, is projected to use
68 percent more energy than the United States by 2035.” said Acting EIA
Administrator Howard Gruenspecht.

Some key findings:

China and India lead the growth
in world demand for energy in the future. The economies of China and India were
among those least affected by the worldwide recession. They continue to lead
world economic growth and energy demand growth in the Reference case. In 2008,
China and India combined accounted for 21 percent of total world energy
consumption. With strong economic growth in both countries over the projection
period, their combined energy use more than doubles by 2035, when they account
for 31 percent of world energy use in the IEO2011 Reference case (Figure 1). In
2035, China’s energy demand is 68 percent higher than U.S. energy demand.

Renewable energy is projected to
be the fastest growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years, but
fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy. Renewable energy consumption
increases by 2.8 percent per year and the renewable share of total energy use
increases from 10 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2035 in the Reference case.
Fossil fuels, however, continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide
throughout the projection, and still account for 78 percent of world energy use
in 2035. While the Reference case projections reflect current laws and policies
as of the start of 2011, past experience suggests that renewable energy
deployment is often significantly affected by policy changes.

Natural gas has the fastest
growth rate among the fossil fuels over the 2008 to 2035 projection period.
World natural gas consumption increases 1.6 percent per year, from 111 trillion
cubic feet in 2008 to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035. Unconventional natural
gas (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane) supplies increase substantially
in the IEO2011 Reference case—especially from the United States, but also from
Canada and China.

World oil prices remain high in
the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both
conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand.
In the IEO2011 Reference case the price of light sweet crude oil (in real 2009
dollars) remains high, reaching $125 per barrel in 2035. Total world petroleum
and other liquids fuel use increases by 26.9 million barrels per day between
2008 and 2035, but the growth in conventional crude oil production is less than
half this amount at 11.5 million barrels per day, while production of natural
gas plant liquids increase by 5.1 million barrels per day, World production of
unconventional resources (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil,
coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids), which totaled 3.9 million barrels per day
in 2008, increases to 13.1 million barrels per day in 2035 (Figure 2).

Other report highlights include:

•From 2008 to 2035, total world
energy consumption rises by an average annual 1.6 percent in the IEO2011
Reference case. Strong economic growth among the non-OECD (Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development) nations drives the increase. Non-OECD
energy use increases by 2.3 percent per year; in the OECD countries energy use
grows by only 0.6 percent per year.

•Petroleum and other liquid fuels
remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected
higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 34 percent in 2008
to 29 percent in 2035.

•Projected petroleum consumption
and prices are very sensitive to both supply and demand conditions. Higher
economic growth in developing countries coupled with reduced supply from key
exporting countries result in a High Oil Price case in which real oil prices
exceed $169 per barrel by 2020 and approach $200 per barrel by 2035.
Conversely, lower economic growth in developing countries coupled with
increased supplies from key exporting countries result in a Low Oil Price case
in which real oil prices fall to about $55 per barrel in 2015 and then
gradually decline to $50 per barrel after 2030 where they remain through 2035.

•World coal consumption increases
from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035, at an average
annual rate of 1.5 percent in the IEO2011 Reference case. In the absence of
policies or legislation that would limit the growth of coal use, China and, to
a lesser extent, India and the other nations of non-OECD Asia consume coal in
place of more expensive fuels. China alone accounts for 76 percent of the
projected net increase in world coal use, and India and the rest of non-OECD
Asia account for another 19 percent of the increase.

•Electricity is the world’s
fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption in the Reference case, as it
has been for the past several decades. Net electricity generation worldwide
rises by 2.3 percent per year on average from 2008 to 2035. Renewables are the
fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0 percent
and outpacing the average annual increases for natural gas (2.6 percent),
nuclear power (2.4 percent), and coal (1.9 percent).

•The transportation sector
accounted for 27 percent of total world delivered energy consumption in 2008,
and transportation energy use increases by 1.4 percent per year from 2008 to
2035. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from
54 percent in 2008 to 60 percent in 2035 in the IEO2011 Reference case,
accounting for 82 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption

•In the IEO2011 Reference case,
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 30.2 billion metric tons in
2008 to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035—an increase of 43 percent. Much of the
increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing
nations of the world, especially in Asia.

International Energy Outlook 2011
is available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/.

Source: www.eia.gov