Global Agreement on Targets Unlikely

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said this week that world nations are unlikely to strike agreement on details of a new climate change pact at the Copenhagen summit next month. But a new research paper commissioned by the German Government has found that countries including China, India, Brazil and Mexico are on track to cut their emissions by 25% by 2020.

UN’s Ban Ki-moon says Copenhagen conference may not agree full details of new climate pact

By David Stringer for CP reported (4 November 2009):

LONDON — U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that world nations are unlikely to strike agreement on details of a new climate change pact at a key U.N. summit next month.

Ban said he no longer expects nations to commit to firm emissions limits at the December summit in Copenhagen, Denmark.

“I’m reasonably optimistic that Copenhagen will be a very important milestone. At the same time, realistically speaking, we may not be able to agree all the words,” Ban told reporters after holding talks in London with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

The new pact – which is being worked on at U.N. talks this week in Barcelona, Spain – is meant to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. The Kyoto treaty committed 37 industrialized nations to cut greenhouse gases, while the new pact would apply to developing countries as well.

Years of negotiations over the new pact have been dogged by disputes between industrial and developing nations.

“We need at this time the political will – if there is a political will, there is a way we can come to a binding agreement in Copenhagen,” Ban said.

Ban said he would push leaders to conclude a pact in Copenhagen, but said it is more likely that only agreement on principles – rather than specific targets for cuts – would be reached.

He said industrialized countries must agree to make ambitious targets to reduce emissions, and to provide sufficient financial support to developing nations to allow them to limit their emissions. Ban also wants developed countries to offer technology to allow poorer nations to adapt to the impact of climate change, and an agreement on how the pact will be enforced.

“Every day we are fighting to get an agreement that will be binding,” Brown told reporters.

The European Union on Friday called for C5 billion to C7 billion ($7.5 billion to $10.3 billion) in climate change aid to poorer nations over the next three years, reaching C100 billion, or nearly $150 billion a year, by 2020.

But EU nations failed to agree on exactly how much the bloc itself would contribute to the aid fund.

Brown insisted the EU and other industrialized nations are making good progress on the fund, which he said was “absolutely crucial to persuading developing countries that we are serious about helping them tackle the problems that arise from climate change.”

He said that, if a legally binding pact cannot be reached immediately, the Copenhagen meeting should produce a detailed basis for such a treaty to be agreed on in 2010.

British officials believe a treaty won’t be agreed before U.S. commitments on emission reductions are settled. Legislation is making its way through Congress, but is unlikely to be completed before the Denmark summit.

Brown plans talks Wednesday with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and on Friday with Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen.

Britain also plans to focus on climate funding at the Nov. 6-7 summit of finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations.

Source: www.google.com

On ABC’s AM programme, Sarah Clarke reported (7 November 2009):

Hopes of delivering a new climate treaty in Copenhagen next month have all but faded after a week of spats and little progress at the final round of United Nations talks in Barcelona.

Developing countries remain suspicious of richer nations, accusing them of failing to commit to deep emissions targets and industrial countries want greater commitments from the poorer nations.

But a new research paper commissioned by the German Government has found that countries including China, India, Brazil and Mexico are on track to cut their emissions by 25 per cent by 2020.

It’s the first major assessment that quantifies the progress of the developing nations’ efforts to cut emissions and climate groups say pressure is now on countries like Australia to come to the negotiating table.

Our environment reporter Sarah Clarke is talking to Erwin Jackson from the Climate Institute.

ERWIN JACKSON: What it really shows is that these countries are joining the clean energy economy superhighway and if countries like Australia don’t strengthen and pass their own domestic policies they’re going to be left in dirty pollution cul-de-sacs.

SARA CLARKE: And hasn’t this been the whole debacle or the whole dilemma where the developed countries like Australia and the US are saying we don’t want to commit to anything until we know what you can do from the developing side of things?

ERWIN JACKSON: Well we know China have got aggressive plans to improve energy efficiency and promote renewable energy. India are putting in plans and legislation. We’re seeing emissions trading systems emerge in Mexico and South Korea.

If you add these policies up, they are starting to get to the levels which are more than sufficient to trigger the developed country action in the order of 25 to 40 per cent reductions by 2020.

SARA CLARKE: And this is the figure that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested what the developing countries need to achieve. Therefore are they on track?

ERWIN JACKSON: Based on this report the major economies in the developing world are on track to meet the conditions or for 450 parts per million stabilisation scenario.

The other important thing about this report is that it shows that with support through international financing to unlock additional public and private sector investments in clean energy, then the developing world can be put on a path which is very consistent with avoiding catastrophic climate change.

SARA CLARKE: So how do the figures compare to say what Australia and the United States can do? They’re actually almost suggesting that the developing world is doing a little bit better.

ERWIN JACKSON: Well it suggests that the developed world as a group needs to do some catch-up. The developing world’s, the major economies in the developing world are moving ahead with aggressive policies and with international support through financing they can do a lot more.

What this report shows is the condition, the developing world’s condition for Australia’s 25 per cent target; it looks on track to being met. The key test however for the developing countries will be whether they’re prepared to put these commitments into an international treaty.

SARA CLARKE: The Barcelona talks this week saw a walk-out by African nations and little progress on a 200-page document. Where to from here? What’s realistically going to be achieved in Copenhagen?

ERWIN JACKSON: Well I think that we can’t judge Copenhagen on whether it delivers a legally binding treaty at that particular point in time. We’ve got to judge Copenhagen whether it lays the foundations for the agreement of a binding treaty within six months of Copenhagen.

And the key to unlocking that will not only be the internationalising of countries’ targets, whether they be developing country actions or the United States’ own actions. It’s also going to be international financing: How do we help developing countries and the private sector invest at scale in new low carbon technologies in the developing world?

Erwin Jackson from the Climate Institute talking to our environment reporter Sarah Clarke.

Source: www.abc.net.au