Under the Climate Change Act, ministers must decide by the end of 2012 whether to include aviation and shipping emissions in the UK’s long-term targets, which require emissions to be cut by 80% by 2050. The target can be achieved at a cost of 1-2% of GDP, says David Kennedy, the chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change, who has challenged ministers to include the sectors in order to ensure the UK is meeting international obligations in spirit as well as in the letter of the law. Read More

Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent for the guardian.co.uk (5 April 2012):

The government’s green credentials will be put to a “key test” Thursday, as ministers will be urged by their advisers to include greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and shipping in the UK’s carbon targets.

If airlines and container ships are included, the task of meeting the targets is made much harder. These two large and growing sources of emissions are currently excluded from the goals under a technicality.

David Kennedy, the chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change, challenged ministers to include the sectors in order to ensure the UK is meeting international obligations in spirit as well as in the letter of the law. “This will be a key test for the government,” Kennedy said. “If we don’t include these sectors that would in effect be a lowering of the UK’s carbon targets.”

The issue is one of acute political sensitivity, because politicians appear reluctant to jeopardise the rise of low-cost airlines offering cheap flights. Within the Conservative party ranks, it is likely to be particularly controversial given the increasingly open climate scepticism of many Tory MPs.

Kennedy said he was aware of the potential for a political storm over his proposals, but said that if ministers chose not to accept the report’s advice, it would mean they were watering down the UK’s carbon targets.

He said that including aviation emissions need not mean fewer or more expensive flights – a key consideration as thousands of holidaymakers take budget flights over the Easter break. The aviation sector could still expand without punitive costs being passed on to consumers, as long as emissions from other sectors – such as residential buildings, energy generation and industry – are cut in line with long-term goals.

“This has no effect on aviation expansion,” said Kennedy, including plans for new airports or a third runway at Heathrow. In part, this is because the UK’s current climate targets have been drawn up with an eye to the possible inclusion of these sectors at a later date, so the targets for the rest of the economy have been made to compensate for this.

However, if the two sectors are included, it would mean that the equivalent amount of carbon emissions allowable in the period 2023-2027 would have to rise from 1950 megatonnes to 2150 megatonnes.

Under the Climate Change Act, ministers must decide by the end of 2012 whether to include aviation and shipping emissions in the UK’s long-term targets, which require emissions to be cut by 80% by 2050.

When the act was passed in 2008, aviation and shipping were excluded because they are not counted in international targets, such as those in force under the United Nations’ agreements, including the Kyoto protocol. Historically, these emissions have been ignored because of the difficulty of apportioning them to different countries, and because of the danger that transport companies could try to evade any restrictions, for instance by choosing different ports. But these sectors account for a rising proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, as international trade increases.

The European Union has moved to include aviation emissions under its flagship emissions trading scheme, but has faced fierce opposition from airlines in the US, China, India and other countries. Plans to include shipping under the trading system were shelved, in light of the effort needed to ensure the problems over aviation can be solved.

A spokesman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change said: “The government welcomes this report, which is critical to informing the decision over how to account for international aviation and shipping emissions domestically. We will consider this advice carefully in reaching our decision which is due by the end of this year as set out in the Climate Change Act 2008.”

Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Committee on Climate Change Report announcement (5 April 2012):

CCC recommends formalising existing approaches to include international aviation and shipping emissions in carbon budgets

There is no longer any reason to exclude international aviation and shipping emissions from carbon budgets according to the Committee on Climate Change. This was the conclusion in the Committee’s report “Scope of carbon budgets – Statutory advice on inclusion of international aviation and shipping”.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping were initially left out of carbon budgets and the 2050 target when the Climate Change Act became Law in 2008, with the decision on inclusion delayed to 2012.

In the meantime, the Committee and the Government have acted as though international aviation and shipping emissions are in the 2050 target, based on a certain interpretation of the legislation. The risk is that a new Government would not adopt the same interpretation.

In order to mitigate this risk, the Committee recommends that the current approach should be formalised through including international aviation and shipping emissions in carbon budgets and the 2050 target, therefore providing more certainty that it will be continued in future. Moreover, inclusion would provide the most transparent, comprehensive and flexible accounting framework under the Climate Change Act.

To implement the new approach the Committee recommends that currently legislated budgets are increased to allow for international aviation and shipping emissions:

International aviation emissions should be added to currently legislated budgets budgets based on the UK share of the EU ETS cap (i.e. 31 MtCO2e per year).

International shipping emissions should be added at around 9 MtCO2e per year, based on a projection of UK emissions which reflects current international policy (i.e. the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) adopted by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)).

The implication of inclusion on this basis is that there would be no new commitments or costs in aviation, shipping or other sectors of the economy. For example, commitments and costs relating to aviation have already been made in the EU context, and would simply be reflected in carbon budgets.

The Committee’s report also shows how a 2050 target including aviation and shipping emissions could be achieved, building on its own previous work and that of the Government in the November 2011 Carbon Plan.

The analysis in the report reinforces other studies which suggest the 2050 target can be achieved at a cost of 1-2% of GDP. This cost was previously accepted by Parliament when the Climate Change Act was first legislated, given the much higher costs and consequences from not acting to reduce emissions.

The long-term emissions pathways in the report highlight the need for deep cuts in emissions from the power, surface transport, and buildings sectors. They justify the current policy approach which is aimed at developing and deploying a range of low-carbon power technologies (i.e. nuclear, renewables, CCS), improving energy efficiency in buildings and supporting renewable heat investment, improving fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles and catalysing development of the electric vehicle market.

On the long-term path for aviation emissions, the Committee recommends that the aim should be for emissions in 2050 that are no higher than 2005 levels. Given scope for increased fuel and carbon efficiency of flying, this would allow some demand growth over the next four decades. The Committee suggests that this path should be delivered through EU and global policies rather than a unilateral UK approach, in order to avoid competitiveness impacts that could otherwise ensue.

Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the CCC said:

“Including international aviation and shipping emissions in UK carbon budgets has an importance which goes beyond the specific issue of international aviation and shipping. This report makes a recommendation which, if now accepted by government and Parliament, will complete the UK statutory framework.”

Source: www.theccc.org.uk